Mariners Flawed Idea With Moving Fences - Gary Armida's Blog

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Gary Armida's Blog

Mariners Flawed Idea With Moving Fences Stuck

Posted on October 3, 2012 at 09:47 AM.

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Watching a game in Safeco Field has always been a throwback experience. The field is one where pitching and defense rule. That may seem like a broad generalization, but consider that Major League Baseball has seen 38 1-0 games this season. The Mariners hosted six of them. In 79 home games this season, either the Mariners (mostly the Mariners) or their opponents scored two or fewer runs 70 times. The Mariners rank last in the American League in runs scored, but a closer look shows that they actually rank fifth in runs scored on the road.

Obviously, a change seemed necessary.

Instead of improving their team, the Mariners decided to follow the New York Mets� path of changing their home field dimensions in order to boost their lack of home offense. It is a somewhat risky decision in that the Mariners do have a pitching staff that is somewhat tailored to their ballpark. And, the decision could expose, just like it did with the Mets, that the Mariners don�t really have all that great of an offense.

But, the Mariners decision is one that General Manager Jack Zduriencik believes will help make the Mariners a better home team. �Our goal was to create an environment that is fair for both hitters and pitchers. Considering the current field dimensions as well as the climate in and around Safeco Field, we feel this will be accomplished with this new layout,� said Zduriencik.

Creating a balanced environment is one thing, but considering the lack of offensive weapons the Mariners currently employ and the scarcity of such potential weapons in their farm system, this move could actually set them back, unless Zduriencik drastically remakes his team.

On the road, the Mariners compiled a 35-46 record, scoring 362 runs while allowing 391. Heading into Tuesday�s games, they were 38-41 at home, scoring 239 runs while allowing 259. Yes, having a balanced home field will create more runs, but it will create more runs for both teams. There really isn�t a net gain.

One can talk about Kyle Seager, Justin Smoak, and Dustin Ackley being hurt by Safeco Field. Yes, Seager and Smoak have each hit just four home runs at home, while hitting 15 on the road. But, good hitters can hit anywhere. A couple more home runs will not turn any of the three young players into the above average players the Mariners are looking for. The players need to improve their approach at the plate, not have a few more home runs.

Make no mistake---the three have the talent to be quality Major League players. Dustin Ackley is talented, but he has turned in a terrible sophomore year. Smoak is befuddling in that he was so bad that he was demoted earlier this year, but has been one of the league�s top hitters this month as he has hit .338/.424/.588 with 5 doubles and 5 home runs in 80 at bats. Seager has been solid during his first full season, but his .314 on base percentage and lack of plate discipline won�t make him the second coming of Chase Headley.

Perhaps the move is made to help out Jesus Montero, who is cast as the Mariners� great offensive hope. He has slugged just .383 this season and just .328 at home. Maybe someone with his potential would benefit, but this move smacks of overreaction.

This season has been a season of extreme in Seattle. Perhaps it is the climate, good pitching, or just a season of randomness, but this is an extreme lack of offense. Now, the Mariners have decided to move in the fences. And, they aren�t just making minor adjustments.

From the Mariners Press Release:

�From the left field corner to a point about midway between the bullpens, the wall will be moved in four-feet. The biggest change will be from the left field power alley area to straightaway center, where the wall will be as much as 17-feet closer to home plate. From straightaway center to right center, the wall will be moved in-four feet.

Another noticeable change will be in the left field corner. The hand-operated scoreboard will no longer be in play, and will be relocated to a new location above left field as part of seating modifications that will be announced at a later date. Currently in the left field corner, the wall is 16-feet high with the hand-operated scoreboard in play. After the board is moved, the outfield wall will be eight-feet high there, making it the same height from foul pole to foul pole.�

Why do this now? The reasoning isn�t all that clear other than for more home runs. Is this a sort of notice that the Mariners are worried about attendance? Maybe. The Mariners once were one of the game�s great draws. But, they haven�t done well in recent years in terms of attendance. Does that have to do with their offense? The offense is what masks the real problem with every fan base: losing. Outside of Felix Hernandez and until this year, Ichiro, what reason do Mariners fans have to come to the park? Their team has been awful, their talent level low, and, as stated, their win total low.

If this move was made with attendance in mind, then the Mariners have no chance. They are trying to change their environment and now need to change their team in order to have maximum benefit. The only way this works is if the Mariners� young pitchers in the farm system can get to the Major Leagues and be those high strikeout pitchers. Felix Hernandez can pitch anywhere. You can move the fences in 100 feet and he�ll still be great. But, the rest of the Mariners rotation benefits from the Safeco elements. Jason Vargas has given up 35 home runs this year even with Safeco as his home. No other starter can be called anything better than close to average.

But, the farm system does have three pitchers who could help form one of the better rotations in the sport. Taijuan Walker is just 19 years old and in double-A averaging 8.6 K/9. Danny Hultzen is 22 years old in triple-A averaging 9.9 K/9. James Paxton is 22 years old in double-A averaging 9.3 K/9. With Hernandez fronting that rotation either next season or in 2014, the Mariners would have the type of rotation that could do well in a more neutral environment. High strikeout pitchers can succeed in any environment. If Zduriencik is moving the fences in with that pitching staff in mind, the idea does have more validity as he can focus on remaking the offense.

The offense does need some real change. This season, only one semi-regular--John Jaso--has an on base percentage over .314. In fact, six of the Mariners regular lineup members have on base percentages under .300. Moving in a fence will not cure that. Moving in the fences will not help the Mariners score more runs; they simply don�t have enough players who get on base. Perhaps Seager, Ackley, Smoak, and Montero can develop into those sorts of players. But, the odds of all four reaching their potential is very long. Zduriencik will now hope that new dimensions will help lure some better hitters to Seattle.

Moving the fences isn�t an immediate fix. Instead of building a team around the ballpark and to try to neuter the Rangers, A�s, and Angels� offense when they are playing in Safeco, they change their park, which helps accentuate their opponents� offensive strengths. Zduriencik has proven that he can make quick, sweeping changes, but he hasn�t done that since his first winter meetings. The Mets moved their fences in before this season and scored less runs than they did last year. Why? They did nothing to address their roster. They lost Jose Reyes and didn�t have any sort of replacement player.

Hopefully, Zduriencik can make the necessary changes because without a change, the fence move is nothing but a shallow attempt at selling tickets at the expense of the success of the team.

Comments

# 1 RandyBass @ Oct 3

Moving the fences in will help attract free agent hitters. It's pretty well known that guys hate to hit at Safeco.

# 2 marginwalker12 @ Oct 3

Mariners don't win at Safeco because they're tailored to play there. They win because they're the home team. Every team with the exception of the Twins,= won more at home than on the road, or were within a game. Look at Adrian Beltre. He was engulfed at Safeco. One one of his five years did he top .800 OPS. In his 3 years since, he's been pushing .900. And it comes at a point in his career where one my say he's past his peak performance years. The minute he left for Boston his career turned around. We could have been looking at one of the best offensive 3B in history. Now we wonder what it. Ask me to pick between a game at Safeco and Ballpark at Arlington, and I'll go to Arlington everytime. Moving in the fences will attract more hitters. Pitchers go where they can win. We're obviously not talking about Coors.

# 3 Gleebo @ Oct 3

chicks dig the long ball...